Jumping to Conclusions - A Logico-Probabilistic Foundation for Defeasible Rule-Based Arguments

A theory of defeasible arguments is proposed that combines logical and probabilistic properties. This logico-probabilistic argumentation theory builds on two foundational theories of nonmonotonic reasoning and uncertainty: the study of nonmonotonic consequence relations (and the associated minimal model semantics) and probability theory. A key result is that, in the theory, qualitatively defined argument validity can be derived from a quantitative interpretation. The theory provides a synthetic perspective of arguments ‘jumping to conclusions’, rules with exceptions, and probabilities.